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Hlaziya izibikezelo zamva nje kunye neengqikelelo malunga namaxabiso ekofu kwiveki ezayo kwimarike yehlabathi kunye ne-2022, ngokutsho kohlalutyo lwengcali Nguyen Quang Binh kunye neengcali zehlabathi.

Izinto ezichaphazela amaxabiso ekofu kwiveki ezayo

Ikhofi ye-Robusta iyaqhubeka iphantsi koxinzelelo lokubonelela ngobuninzi emva kokuba iSebe Jikelele le-Vietnam Customs kwiveki ephelileyo lathi i-Vietnam ye-coffee exports ngoMeyi yanda ngo-+9.3% ngonyaka ukuya kwi-142,329 iitoni kunye nokuthunyelwa kwekhofi ngoJanuwari 23.2% ukuya kwiitoni ze-881,565. IVietnam ngoyena mvelisi mkhulu weembotyi zekofu ehlabathini.

I-USDA kwiveki ephelileyo ihlaziye uqikelelo lwayo lwemveliso yekofu yaseVietnam ka-2021-22 ukuya kwiingxowa ze-31.58 yezigidi ezivela kwiingxowa ze-31.1 yezigidi kodwa yathi imveliso ye-2022/23 iya kuba phantsi -2.2% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kwiingxowa ze-30.9 yezigidi.

Umba oxhasayo wekofu yeArabica uncitshisiwe imveliso eColombia, umvelisi wesibini weArabica omkhulu kwihlabathi. I-Colombian Coffee Growers Federation kwiveki ephelileyo yathi imveliso yekofu kaJanuwari-Meyi yaseColombia yayiphantsi -4% ngonyaka-ngonyaka kwi-4.5 yezigidi zeengxowa.

Izinto ezininzi zinokulawula umsebenzi wokurhweba kunye nexabiso lekhofi kwiintsuku ezizayo ukuba umthengisi kufuneka abone kwangaphambili ukuze alungiselele ixesha elitsha kunye.

  • Iimarike zezimali zehlabathi zineveki eguquguqukayo. Zontathu izalathisi ezinkulu zesitokhwe e-US zongeze enye iveki yelahleko kwaye yayiyeyona nto iyancipha kakhulu ngeveki kwiminyaka emibini. Utshintshiselwano oluninzi lweempahla nalo lonyukile phakathi evekini ngelixa ulinde isigqibo sokunyusa amazinga enzala okusebenza kwe-US Central Bank (Fed) kodwa ke ekugqibeleni yajika yehla.
  • I-Fed, kunye nezinye iibhanki ezininzi zase-United Kingdom naseSwitzerland, zagqiba ekubeni zinyuse inzala phantse ngaxeshanye. Ukongeza, i-EU central bank (ECB) ibhengeze ukuba iya kuphakamisa inzala ukusuka ekuqaleni kwe-22 kaJulayi.
  • Ikofu, ikomkhulu lase-UK, iLondon, likhaya kutshintshiselwano lwe-robusta derivatives, ngelixa iSwitzerland ilikhaya kuninzi lwekofu enkulu yehlabathi kunye namaqela orhwebo. Ke ngoko, imigangatho emibini yekofu eLondon naseNew York “ibaleka ilanga” ukuze ekugqibeleni ibe nokuhla kweziphumo.
  • Ngokusebenzisa lo mgaqo-mali ungentla, abahlalutyi bezemali abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba ukudodobala koqoqosho kwixeshana elifutshane kuya kwenzeka. Yintoni abatyali-mali abayikhathaleleyo ngoku kukuba ukudodobala koqoqosho kuya kuhlala ixesha elingakanani kwaye kuya kubachaphazela njani umgca wabo osezantsi, utshilo uChris Harvey, intloko yeqhinga likaWells Fargo.

Coffee inventory imeko

  • Ukususela ngo-Juni 16, uluhlu lweempahla ezisemgangathweni kwiibini ezimbini zotshintshiselwano xa kuthelekiswa nengxelo yeveki edlulileyo zimi ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: I-robusta yaseLondon ifikelele kwiitoni ze-103,810, ukusuka kwi-101.370 yeetoni, i-New York i-arabica iyancipha ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-59,918 ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-61,253. Isixa se-arabica sehla ngokukhawuleza ngenxa yokuba abanye abathumeli bathumela uluhlu lwe-arabica kwezinye iimarike.
  • I-coffee stocks ekhoyo eNyakatho Melika phantsi kwe-American Coffee Association (GCA) ekupheleni kukaMeyi 22 ifikelele kwi-6,004 yezigidi zeengxowa (isikhwama = 60 kg) esilingana neeveki ze-12 zokusetyenziswa. Lo mqulu xa kuthelekiswa no-Epreli/22 unyuke nge-1.6% kwaye kwangelo xesha linye ngo-2021 unyuke nge-3.2%.
  • Ikofu yaseBrazil yonyaka wezityalo ka-2022-2023 iphantse yenziwa. Abalimi bavakalisa uvuyo lokuvuna. Baqikelela kulo nyaka imveliso yerobusta yaseBrazil ayinakuba ngaphantsi kweengxowa ezingama-20 ezigidi.
  • Ubuncinci abarhwebi abahlanu baxelele iReuters ukuba babone malunga neengxowa ezili-100,000 okanye iitoni ezingama-6,000 ze-arabica eqeqeshiweyo zifuduswa ukusuka kwindawo yokugcina impahla yase-Antwerp (eBelgium) ukuya e-US. Balindele ukuya kuthi ga kwi-250,000 yeengxowa eziya kuthunyelwa kwiinyanga ezimbini ezizayo. Olu luluhlu lwexesha elide, ngoku ixabiso liyancitshiswa ngenxa yokugcinwa ixesha elide ngaphandle kwefandesi phantsi. Ngoku kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla zaseNew York arabica floor eYurophu, kukho phantse isigidi esi-1 seengxowa zempahla esemgangathweni evela eHonduras (iingxowa ezingama-410,000) naseBrazil (iingxowa ezingama-420,000).

Uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha lwamaxabiso ekofu yeRobusta ngeveki ye-4 kaJuni:

  • Ukuphawula kwimarike, ingcali u-Nguyen Quang Binh uthe i-Robusta ineveki eqinile yokuguquguquka phakathi kwe-2,118 ephezulu kunye ne-2,032 yokuvala i-2,079. Kule veki, ummandla 2,090 – 2,094 useyindawo ebalulekileyo yesithintelo. Ukuba iLondon ikhe yagqabhuka kwaye ivale ngaphezulu kwale ndawo, kusekho indawo yokuphinda ifumaneke ngaphezulu kwe-2,100. Umqobo wokumelana ne-2,150 uya usiba nzima kwaye unzima. ILondon yahamba kuphela ngaphezulu kwe-2,150 kurhwebo olunzima kwaye yavalwa ngaphezulu kwayo.
  • Ngokuchasene noko, ukuba ilahlekelwa ngumqobo we-2.069, iya kuwela kwindawo ephantsi kunye nommandla we-2.032 / 2,033. UMnu Binh uhlalutye, ethetha ngobugcisa, imarike ifuna ukuhla, kodwa mhlawumbi ngenxa yokwesaba kwemozulu ebanda engalindelekanga eBrazil, ixabiso leRobusta lisaxhonywe.
  • Ingcali yongezelela ukuba ixabiso lekhofi yasekhaya ngexesha elide alizange lilandele ixabiso le-derivative floor, ukurhweba ngamanye amaxesha ngaphezu kwe-44 yezigidi ze-VND / ton. Ukuthengisa ngexabiso eliphezulu, abarhwebi kufuneka babeke iliso kwi-USD ukuya kwizinga lokutshintshiselana kweVND. Ixabiso eliphantsi le-VND xa lithelekiswa ne-USD, liphezulu ixabiso lekofu yasekhaya. Oku kunyuka akubangelwa yimfuno yosetyenziso kodwa kungenxa yeemeko zemali.

Impembelelo kumaxabiso ekofu yasekhaya

  • Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali awuthandeki ngenxa yokuba ngexesha elifanayo amazwe amathathu abalulekileyo kwishishini lekhofi yehlabathi liye laphakamisa inzala yabo yokusebenza. I-Fed kunye ne-ECB nazo zonyuka amaxesha amaninzi kulo nyaka nakunyaka ozayo…kude kulawuleke ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, okuthetha ukuba amaxabiso eemveliso kufuneka ehle. Kwaye … akukho mpendulo ide ilawulwe.
  • Inkunzi yeshishini bekungekho lula ukuboleka, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eempahla kusetyenziso olulinganiselweyo ngelixa i-Brazil ibinexesha elimnandi kwaye imali yasekhaya i-BRl yayitshiphu xa ithelekiswa ne-USD. Amafama aseBrazil akulungele kakhulu ukuthengisa xa iBrl ihla.
  • Imozulu eshushu eYurophu. Kumazwe amakhulu asebenzisa ikofu yaseVietnam, njengeSpain, iPortugal, iFransi, njl.
  • Ngeli xesha, yonke imarike efuna ukunyusa amaxabiso inokulinda kuphela iqabaka kwiindawo zekofu okanye isomiso esichaphazela kakubi imveliso yekofu yaseBrazil kwixesha elizayo.Ezo zizinto zabarhwebi bekofu e-robusta.zicingele wena. Umfanekiso wemarike ongentla uzotywe ngokwenyani. Ngoko ke, ixabiso lomgangatho wexesha elizayo le-robusta ye-robusta ngoSeptemba/22 ixesha alikadluli kwi-2,150 “ukubamba isantya sobugcisa” ukunyuka.
  • Ixabiso lekofu yasekhaya ekuhambeni kwexesha alizange lilandele ixabiso le-derivative floor, ukurhweba ngamanye amaxesha ngaphezu kwe-44 yezigidi ze-VND / ton. Ukuthengisa ngexabiso eliphezulu, abarhwebi kufuneka babeke iliso kwi-USD ukuya kwizinga lokutshintshiselana kweVND. Ixabiso eliphantsi le-VND xa lithelekiswa ne-USD, liphezulu ixabiso lekofu yasekhaya. Oku kunyuka akubangelwa yimfuno yosetyenziso kodwa kungenxa yeemeko zemali.

Uqikelelo lwexabiso lekofu kwiveki ezayo nangowama-2022

Nalu olunye uqikelelo lwamaxabiso ekofu kwiveki ezayo nangowama-2022 yimibutho kunye neengcali:

  • Ukungavisisani kwezopolitiko phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine akukhange kubonise naziphi na iimpawu zokwehla, imarike ixhalabile malunga nokuncitshiswa kwemfuno yokusetyenziswa kunye nenkcitho engqongqo kwixesha elifutshane neliphakathi, nto leyo ebangela ukuba abaqikeleli babhangise ngamandla. Kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso ekofu abe phantsi koxinzelelo kwixesha elifutshane ngenxa yempembelelo ye-geopolitical impulses.
  • Impembelelo yengxabano yaseRashiya-Ukraine nayo yabangela ukunqongophala okukhulu kwemarike yezichumisi. Iindawo ezikhulayo eBrazil zidinga isichumisi ezininzi ezivela eRashiya naseUkraine, ngaloo ndlela zichaphazela iindleko zemveliso yekofu.
  • Ngokutsho kwengxelo yeSebe lezoLimo lase-US (i-USDA), iVietnam isenayo indawo eninzi yokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwekofu kwiimarike eziphezulu ze-5 zehlabathi: i-US, iJamani, iFransi, iCanada kunye ne-Italy. Ukuchacha koqoqosho olukhulu kwihlabathi jikelele nako kunceda ukunyusa izinga lokusetyenziswa kwekofu. Ukunyuka kwendlela yokusetyenziswa kwekofu kwangoko kunceda ukonyusa inzuzo yekofu yaseVietnam yaseRobusta.
  • iSebe lokuThumela kumazwe angaphandle kunye nokuThunyelwa kwamanye amazwe-uMphathiswa woShishino noRhwebo Uqikelelo lwexabiso lekofu lwehlabathi lunendlela yokuhla yexesha elifutshane. Abaxeli barhoxile imali yabo ukuze bafune iindawo ezikhuselekileyo ngenxa yomngcipheko wokungavisisani phakathi kweRussia neUkraine. Ngexesha elide, amaxabiso ekofu kufuneka aphinde abuyele njengoko ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine iyancipha.
  • Ikofu kwezi zimbini zotshintshiselwano ayinakunqanda uxinzelelo olusezantsi ngenxa yokuba unikezelo oluzayo luya kuba luninzi kubavelisi ababini abakhulu baseBrazil nase-Indonesia, abaza kungena kwisivuno sesityalo esitsha. Okwangoku, uxinzelelo lwe-US Federal Reserve (i-Fed) yokunyusa izinga lenzala esisiseko kwi-USD lisondela ngokusondela.
  • Ngokunikezelwa kwekofu ye-robusta kuzaliswa kwakhona xa iVietnam ingena kwixesha lokuvuna, kwixesha elifutshane, sicinga ukuba amaxabiso ekofu aya kuncipha. Ngaphandle koko, ikofu yasekhaya iya kuhlala iphantsi koxinzelelo kumngcipheko wexabiso lekofu yehlabathi ehlayo xa unikezelo luninzi oluvela eBrazil.
  • Ukulindela ukuba iYurophu kunye ne-US ziya kuphinda zivule ziya kuxhasa ukubuyiswa kwemfuno yokusetyenziswa kwekofu yehlabathi.
  • Ekuqhubekeni, IiReuters wenza uqikelelo, ixabiso lekhofi ye-robusta liya kuwela ngaphantsi kwe-2,000 USD / toni kwikota yesibini ye-2022, xa iBrazil ivuna isityalo esitsha sekhofi ye-Robusta kwaye ikhulise ukuthengisa.
  • Kuqikelelwa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwekofu yaseVietnam ngo-2022 kuya kuqhubeka kukuhle ngombulelo kubonelelo oluninzi, iiFTAs zenza izibonelelo zokukhuphisana zekofu yaseVietnam kunye namaxabiso athumela ngaphandle anokuthi ahlale ephezulu.
  • ISebe lezoLimo lase-US (i-USDA) liqikelela imveliso yekofu yehlabathi kunyaka wezityalo ka-2021-2022 ukuba yehle ngeengxowa ezizizigidi ezisi-8.5 (okanye i-4.8%) xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka wezityalo we-2020-2021, ukuya kwiingxowa eziyi-167.5 yezigidi. ibhegi). Isizathu kukuba ikofu yeArabica eBrazil ingena kumjikelezo wesivuno esiphantsi rhoqo emva kweminyaka emibini kwaye ichaphazeleka yimeko yemozulu embi.
  • ISebe lezoLimo lase-US (USDA) lilindele ukuba imveliso yekofu ye-Arabica yehle malunga ne-30% kwisivuno sika-2021-2022, ngenxa yempembelelo yokushisa okuphezulu kunye nembalela emide. Iqabaka ekhoyo ngoku kulindeleke ukuba ibenempembelelo embi efanayo kwizityalo kwixesha lokuvuna elizayo.
  • Ngokwengxelo yophando lweemarike, kuqikelelwa ukuba kwixesha le-2021-2025, imarike yekofu yehlabathi iya kurekhoda ukukhula okuphakathi kwe-7.6%. Izinto eziqhuba imakethi yekofu njengokwanda kwabantu abasebenzisa ikofu, ukufudukela kwabantu ezidolophini ngokukhawuleza, ukunyuka kwengeniso yeGeneration Z kunye nokwanda kokuthandwa kwekofu kwangoko.

Uqikelelo lwemveliso yaseBrazil

  • Kunyaka wezityalo we-2021-2022, iSebe lezoLimo lase-US (i-USDA) liqikelela ukuba imveliso yekofu yaseBrazil iya kuncipha ngeengxowa ze-13.6 yezigidi ukusuka kunyaka odlulileyo, ukuya kwi-56.3 yezigidi zeengxowa.

  • Apho, imveliso yekofu ye-arabica yehla ngeengxowa ze-14.7 yezigidi ukuya kwiingxowa ze-35 yezigidi kuphela ngenxa yokunciphisa imveliso ngenxa yempembelelo yembalela, iqabaka kunye nobushushu obuphezulu. Ngokwahlukileyo, ukuveliswa kwe-robusta kuqikelelwa ukuba kuqhubeke kwanda ngeengxowa ze-1.1 yezigidi ukuya kwirekhodi ye-21.3 yezigidi zeengxowa.

  • Ngoncedo oluncitshisiweyo, ukuthengiswa kwekofu eBrazil kulindeleke ukuba kwehla ngeengxowa ze-11.7 yezigidi ukusuka kwirekhodi yesityalo sangaphambili ukuya kwi-30 yezigidi zeengxowa, kwaye isiphelo sesitokhwe kulindeleke ukuba siwe ngeengxowa ezingama-500,000 ukuya kwi-2.9 yezigidi zeengxowa. Ukusetyenziswa kwekofu yaseBrazil kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke ukukhula ukuya kwirekhodi yeengxowa ze-23.7 yezigidi.

  • Ngaphandle kokuhla kwemveliso, abathengisi bangaphandle baseBrazil bajongene nemiqobo emininzi ekuqeshweni kweenqanawa zemithwalo kunye nezikhongozeli, ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kuhlala kulibaziseka kwaye kurhoxiswa kwiinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa.

  • Imveliso ye-arabica yaseColombia kwisityalo sika-2021-2022 kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngeengxowa ezingama-400,000 ukuya kwi-13.8 yezigidi zeengxowa phantsi kweemeko zokukhula ezifanelekileyo.

Uqikelelo lwemveliso yekofu yehlabathi

I-International Coffee Organisation (ICO) iqikelela ukuba imarike yekofu yehlabathi iya kuba nentsilelo ye-3.1 yezigidi zeengxowa xa kuthelekiswa nemfuno kunyaka wezityalo ka-2021-2022. ukwanda kokusetyenziswa kweVenezuela, kodwa imeko iyonke inokuba negalelo ekunciphiseni uluhlu lweempahla, njengoko ukusetyenziswa kudlula imveliso kunyaka wekofu 2021-2022.

  • Imveliso yekofu yehlabathi jikelele kunyaka wekofu ka-2021-2022 iqikelelwe yi-ICO ukuba ibe kwiingxowa ze-167.2 yezigidi, phantsi kwe-2.1% ukusuka kwi-170.8 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka wezityalo ka-2020-2021.
  • Enye yezinto eziphambili eziqhuba oku kuhla kukwehla okulindelekileyo kwimveliso ye-arabica nge-7.1%, ukuya kutsho kwiingxowa eziphantse zibe zizigidi ezingama-94; ngelixa imveliso ye-robusta kulindeleke ukuba inyuke nge-5.1% ukuya kwi-73.2 yezigidi zeengxowa.
  • Ngokumalunga nommandla wemveliso, ukuveliswa kwekhofi e-Asia nase-Oceania kuqikelelwa ukuba kwanda nge-7.1%, ukusuka kwiingxowa ze-48 yezigidi ukuya kwi-51.4 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka we-2021-2022.
  • Imveliso yaseMzantsi Melika, nangona kunjalo, kulindeleke ukuba yehle nge-7.6% ukuya kwi-77.5 yezigidi zeengxowa ukusuka kwi-83.8 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka odlulileyo. Ukongeza, imveliso kuMbindi Merika naseMexico nayo iqikelelwa ukuba iya kuncipha nge-3.5%, ukusuka kwi-19.7 yezigidi zeengxowa ukuya kwi-19 yezigidi zeengxowa.
  • Imveliso yase-Afrika iqikelelwa ukuba yehle kancinci nge-0.3 yeepesenti ukuya phantse kwi-19.3 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka wezityalo ka-2021-2022.
  • Ngeli xesha, ukusetyenziswa kwekofu yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke nge-3.3% ukuya kwi-170.3 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka wezityalo ka-2021-2022 ukusuka kwi-164.9 yezigidi zeengxowa kunyaka wezityalo odlulileyo.

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